Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Odds, Prediction, & Pick

On Saturday night, the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts will meet at Lucas Oil Stadium for their regular season finale. Entering play, both teams need a win and a Jaguars loss on Sunday to secure a division title. The loser of tonights contest will be eliminated from the postseason.

Texans vs. Colts Odds

Texans Odds-1
Colts Odds+1
Over/Under4
DateSat, Jan. 6
Time8:15 p.m.
TVESPN

On Saturday night, the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts will meet at Lucas Oil Stadium for their regular season finale. Entering play, both teams need a win and a Jaguars loss on Sunday to secure a division title. The loser of tonight’s contest will be eliminated from the postseason.

Ahead of kickoff in this matchup, oddsmakers have priced the Texans as 1-point favorites on the spread. The total for this contest is set at over/under 47 points.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.

Houston Texans

What to expect from , Houston offense

took the league by storm this fall, putting together an electric rookie campaign that has solidified his status as Houston’s franchise signal caller for the foreseeable future, but this offense is not playing at the same level as it was earlier in the year. Entering play in Week 18, Houston is decimated on the offensive line, with Kendrick Green, Jarrett Patterson, and Tytus Howard all on injured reserve.

Since Howard last played in Week 12, the Texans’ offense ranks 17th in EPA/play and 24th in success rate. Part of Houston’s offensive struggles are undoubtedly related to the absence of wide receiver as well, who was on pace for over 1,000 receiving yards prior to suffering a season-ending injury in Week 13.

This group has scored 22 points or fewer in four of their last five games, with the lone exception in that span coming against a severely depleted Titans defense. They could find it difficult to put points on the board on Saturday night.

Houston defense hoping to overcome injury woes

In addition to the injury issues Houston has experienced on the offensive side of the ball, they have lost two core members of their secondary unit during the second half of the season – cornerback Tavierre Thomas and safety Jimmie Ward.

Nonetheless, Houston has performed well without Thomas and Ward across the last three weeks, ranking 7th in defensive EPA/play and 1st in defensive success rate in that span. They have been particularly strong against the run during that stretch, ranking 3rd in EPA/play and 1st in success rate.

Indianapolis Colts

Minshew Mania destined for postseason?

Since took over as the team’s permanent starting quarterback in Week 5, the Colts’ offense ranks 15th in EPA/play and 20th in success rate. Their numbers have been even better since their bye, ranking 14th in EPA/play and 13th in success rate across their last six games.

Minshew has been close to average during his time on the field this year, ranking 16th out of 28 qualified quarterbacks since Week 5 in EPA/play, 20th in success rate, and 23rd in air yards per attempt. He is one of better backup signal callers in the NFL, and he is capable of keeping his team competitive most weeks.

Colts defense missing key pieces

Indianapolis’ secondary unit was already in poor shape after losing cornerback Dallis Flowers following Week 4 to an Achilles injury, making the loss of safety Julian Blackmon in Week 16 an extremely notable loss. Prior to landing on injured reserve, Flowers ranked 36th out of 124 players at his position in coverage grade this fall, per PFF. Blackmon had been one of the better safeties in the NFL, ranking 27th out of 95 qualified players in coverage.

Since Blackmon last played a full allotment of snaps in Week 15, the Colts’ defense ranks 25th in EPA/play and 24th in success rate. They allowed 29 points and 406 yards of total offense to and the Falcons in Week 16 and another 370 yards of total offense to the Raiders in Week 17. Stroud and the Texans will be the toughest test yet for this injury-depleted defense.

Texans vs. Colts – Picks & Predictions

Since Week 5, the Colts rank 10th in offensive EPA/play and 12th in offensive success rate in the 1st half of games, compared to 23rd in offensive EPA/play and 29th in success rate in the 2nd half of games. Indianapolis is capable of getting out to an early lead in this contest, but they are far from trustworthy to protect a late lead as we have seen in recent weeks against inferior opponents. Avoid the 2nd half altogether by taking the Colts moneyline for the first 30 minutes on Saturday.

PICK: Colts Moneyline – 1st Half (-105, Fanatics Sportsbook)

Image Credit: Getty Images

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